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El más importante analista político de la Universidad de Virginia, Larry Sabato, y su equipo predicen la victoria del presidente Barack Obama, que obtendría 290 votos electorales, 20 más que los 270 necesarios, en tanto que Mitt Rommey obtendría solamente 248.
Esta prediccion, que fue suscrita por Kyle Kondik y Geoffrey Skelley del Centro de Estudios Políticos de la Universidad de Virginia fue hecha después de el último analisis realizado hoy lunes.
Breaking from Newsmax.com
 Sabato Predicts
Obama Wins, Dems Hold Senate
President Barack Obama will win a second
term and the Democrats will retain control of the Senate and leave the
House in the hands of the Republican Party, University of Virginia’s
political guru Larry Sabato and his team at Sabato’s Crystal Ball predict.
Sabato, along with Kyle Kondik and
Geoffrey Skelley of U.Va.’s Center for Politics made the prediction in
their final look at the election Monday.
Editor's Notes:
The prediction projects Obama will take
290 electoral votes — 20 more than the 270 needed for victory — with GOP
challenger Mitt Romney netting 248.
They further project there will be no
change in the split in the Senate, which will return with 53 Democrats and
47 Republicans. The Democrats will pick up a net of three seats in the
House, leaving it in Republican control by a split of 239 to 196.
“With a slight, unexpected lift provided by
Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama
appears poised to win his second term tomorrow,” they write. “Our final
Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states
of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping
Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.
“This has been a roller-coaster campaign,
though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the
first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an
incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again,"
Sabato and his team wrote.
"Who could have imagined that a
Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign,
blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s
last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential
comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris
Christie?”
They added that with the final jobs
report that showed job growth but had the unemployment rate ticking up but
staying under 8 percent “the final potential obstacle to Obama’s reelection
passed by as a one-day story.
"While Romney surged after the first
debate, he never quite closed the deal in the key swing states. And now, we
believe he has run out of time.”
The projection holds that Obama has no
chance in Indiana, Missouri, Arizona or North Carolina. However, he could
grab Florida and appears to have a solid lead in Nevada.
“We believe the three closest states are
Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire; in reality, all three are toss-ups,
but because we feel obligated to pick every state, we’re splitting these 26
combined electoral votes right down the middle — 13 for Obama (nine from
Colorado and four from New Hampshire) and 13 for Romney from Virginia. It’s
not very scientific, but in these three states the polling averages and our
sources aren’t giving us enough to work with.”
In the Senate, “Obama’s coattails may
allow Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) to squeak out a victory over former Gov. Tommy
Thompson (R) in Wisconsin — we’re left with a Senate that looks exactly the
way it does now: 51-47 Democratic, with two independents caucusing with the
Democrats.”
However, should Romney turn out large
numbers in states where he wins such as Indiana and Missouri, GOP
candidates Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin may prevail.
“Of the two, Akin’s chances may be better
because Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) remains unpopular. In the event of a
Virginia vote as close as we foresee, former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) should be
able to run ahead of former Sen. George Allen (R), but a
bigger-than-expected Romney win could lift Allen.”
In conclusion, Sabato and his team added
that “there are elements of the 2012 election that still confound us, and
this is not one we project with supreme confidence.
“The picks presented in this edition
represent our best judgment, but we’re as fallible as all
prognosticators," they wrote.
© 2012 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
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